iDeemlawfulA recurring anxiety in Nigerian politics is the possibility of a single-party structure or the emergence of a lone presidential candidate. Although such fears resurface frequently, history shows that this scenario has never fully occurred. While recent defections may give the impression of an all-powerful ruling party, Nigeria’s political journey is marked by unpredictability. Broken expectations and sudden turns have always shaped the nation’s political life.
Surprises are inevitable. Unforeseen developments are an inescapable part of politics and strategy. To illustrate this, I will reference three former leaders—Alhaji Shehu Shagari GCFR (25 February 1925 – 28 December 2018), General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida GCFR (84), and General Sani Abacha GCFR (20 September 1943 – 8 June 1998).
Following the July 7, 1979 elections in which Alhaji Usman Aliyu Shehu Shagari emerged as President, party representation in the Senate was spread across multiple platforms. The National Party of Nigeria (NPN) secured 36 seats, the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) held 28, the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) had 16, the Great Nigerian People’s Party (GNPP) won 8, and the People’s Redemption Party (PRP) claimed 7 seats.
Those elected under the NPN included Alhaji A.D. Rufai, Alhaji Ibrahim Dimis, Alhaji Ibrahim Jalo Waziri, Alhaji Abdulkadir Yelwaji Saleh, Alhaji Uba Ahmed, Chief D.D. Dafinone, Chief Andrew Abogede, Chief J.S. Tarka, Mr. Suemo Chia, Mr. B. Ameh Ebute, Colonel Ahmadu Ali, Alhaji Girigiri Lawan, Mr. Victor Akan, Mr. Donald Etiebet, Dr. Joseph Wayas, Mr. Iliya Audu, Alhaji Abba Ali, Mr. Jacob Madawaki, Alhaji Yusuf Ali, Alhaji Isa Abonyi Obaro, Mr. Aliyu Mohamadu Gani, Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki, Alhaji Abubakar Magaji, Alhaji Jibrin Salihu, Alhaji Ibrahim Kolo, Alhaji Abdullahi Mangu, Colonel Garba Dada Paiko, Dr. O. Eberewariye, Mr. C.N. Nunieh, Mr. Amatari Zuofa, Mr. Atto Bugundu, Mr. Haruna Muza, Alhaji Garuba Gada, Alhaji Hassan Zuru and Alhaji Garba Kware.
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Under the UPN banner, elected senators included Chief John Umolu, Chief Emmanuel O. Akpata, Justice Franklin O. Atake, Mr. Gayus Gilama, Mr. Justus Olu Olabode, Alhaji Sikiru Shitta-Bey, Dr. Femi Ayantuga, Alhaji Mudasiru A.O. Abiru, Mr. Abayomi Durosinmi, Mr. Adeyiga Ajayi, Mr. Ladega Daniel Adetola, Mr. Oyero Kunle, Mr. S.O. Sogbein, Chief Jonathan Akinremi Olawale Odebiyi, Chief Abraham Aderibigbe Adesanya, Chief Emmanuel Kayode Ogunleye, Mr. Michael Onukun, Professor David O. Oke, Mr. Ayo Fasanmi, Professor Banj Akintoye, Chief Ayoola Adeleke, Dr. Christopher Ilori, Mr. Ademola Adegoke, Dr. Christopher Adeoye and Mr. Olalere Adesina.
On a personal note, Chief Ayoola Adeleke of Ede, one of those elected, was the father of the current Osun State governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke. He served as Vice Chairman of the Senate Committee on Labour, and I recall fondly his constant supply of bitter kola during his time in the Senate.
The NPP senators included Prince Onyeabo Obi, Dr. Offia Nwali, Chief B. C. Okwu, Chief N. Nathaniel Anah, Mr. Isaiah N. Ani, Mr. Bardi Joe, Mr. Emeka P. Echeruo, Dr. Elijah E. Emezie, Dr. Jaja Nwachukwu, Chief Tony Anyanwu, Mr. Simeon Ojukwu, Mr. Garba Matta, Mr. John Wash Pam, Mr. George Hookwap, Mr. Francis Ella and Dr. Obi Wali.
For the GNPP, the elected senators were Alhaji Idrisa Kadi, Mr. Bukar Sanda, Mr. Jafaru Manga, Mr. Umaru Lawan Bama, Mr. George Daniel, Prince Joseph Ansa, Pastor Luka Zanyazing, Mr. Bitrus B. Kajal and Alhaji Mahmud Waziri. The PRP senators were Alhaji Ibrahim Barau, Alhaji Adamu Gaya, Alhaji Ahmed Zakari, Alhaji Hamisu Musa, Alhaji Usman A. Dambata and Alhaji Sabo B. Zuwo.
In the gubernatorial elections, the NPN produced governors including Alhaji Tatari Ali (Bauchi), Alhaji Shehu Kangiwa (Sokoto), Chief Melford Okilo (Rivers), Anwal Ibrahim (Niger), Alhaji Adamu Attah (Kwara), Dr. Clement Isong (Cross River) and Mr. Aper Aku (Benue).
The UPN governors were Chief Bisi Onabanjo (Ogun), Chief Bola Ige (Oyo), Chief Ambrose Alli (Bendel), Chief Adekunle Ajasin (Ondo) and Alhaji Lateef Jakande (Lagos). The NPP had Chief Jim Nwobodo (Anambra), Chief Solomon Lar (Plateau) and Chief Sam Mbakwe (Imo). GNPP produced Alhaji Abubakar Barde (Gongola) and Mohammed Goni (Borno), while the PRP had Alhaji Balarabe Musa (Kaduna) and Abubakar Rimi (Kano).
In the House of Representatives, the NPN held 168 seats, UPN 111, NPP 79, PRP 47 and GNPP 44.
Among those elected in 1979 was Alhaji Sule Lamido (77) of the PRP, representing Barnin Kudu in Kano State. Decades later, he remains active in national affairs. Also still present in public life is Chief Tajudeen Olusi (89), a former UPN lawmaker and current Chairman of the Lagos State Governance Advisory Council, as well as my friend Peter Olayemi Obaoye, a former representative from Kwara State.
The political balance shifted after the August 20, 1983 elections. The NPN expanded its Senate seats to 60, while UPN dropped to 16, NPP to 12, PRP to 5 and GNPP lost six seats. In the House of Representatives, NPN rose to 306 seats, while UPN fell to 51, NPP to 48, PRP to 41 and GNPP lost all representation.
Gubernatorial outcomes also changed. UPN retained Lagos, Kwara, Ogun and Ondo, while the NPN won several states including Gongola, Bauchi, Benue, Kaduna, Anambra, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Niger, Cross River, Bendel and Borno. PRP held Kano, while NPP retained Plateau.
Speculation soon followed that Nigeria was drifting toward a one-party state. Celebrations erupted within the NPN. I recall a visit to the home of Alhaji Umaru Dikko, where he boasted that “the NPN will swallow all other parties.”
That ambition ended abruptly on December 31, 1983, when Brigadier Sani Abacha announced the military takeover. Major General Muhammadu Buhari assumed power without a political agenda, only to be overthrown by Major General Ibrahim Babangida in August 1985.
After the political bureau’s recommendations, General Babangida decreed a two-party system on October 7, 1989, creating the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC). In his national address, he outlined principles aimed at grassroots democracy, reduced monetisation of politics, and inclusive participation.
He further declared that the Federal Military Government would fund the parties and regulate their finances to prevent undue influence. Party conventions were to be held progressively from ward to national levels under strict guidelines.
In subsequent speeches, Babangida reiterated plans to disengage by 1992, describing the system as one designed by Nigerians for Nigerians. However, the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election ended the two-party experiment and led to the Interim National Government.
Nigeria’s diversity makes political uniformity unrealistic. Our differences extend naturally into politics. General Sani Abacha seized power in November 1993 and ruled through decrees, with widespread human rights abuses documented throughout his tenure.
Under Abacha, arbitrary detention, harassment, and repression were common. Prominent activists, journalists and politicians were jailed, attacked or forced into exile. The execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight others in 1995 symbolised the regime’s brutality.
Efforts were later made to install Abacha as a civilian president. Five political parties adopted him as sole candidate, sparking resistance from groups like the G18 and G34, which opposed his self-succession bid.
On June 8, 1998, General Sani Abacha died at the Presidential Villa, abruptly ending the plan.
Nigeria’s political culture resists absolute control. From its ethnic diversity to constitutional commitment to multiparty democracy, history shows that whenever a single party or candidate appears inevitable, unforeseen forces intervene. Despite current defections, the likelihood of a single-party state by 2027 remains remote. Nigeria’s strength—and challenge—lies in its contradictions, which no single party can fully contain.